Thanksgiving shrinkflation: what got smaller on the holiday table

Where the same item appears in more than one year, Walmart lists the same pack size each time: Stove Top 6 oz boxes, the Campbell’s 10.5 oz can, 15 oz corn, 14.5 oz green beans, 0.87 oz gravy packets, 15 oz pumpkin, 12 fl oz evaporated milk, 10 oz marshmallows, 8 oz whipped topping and 8.5 oz Jiffy. What changed is the contents: which products, how many cans, and how many people the basket is meant to feed (8 in 2024, 10 since). Two rows are swaps, not cuts: the 2024 pie crusts were a 16 oz deep-dish pack and the 2026 ones a 15 oz traditional pack; the 2024 cranberry was a 14 oz can of Ocean Spray sauce and since 2025 it has been a 12 oz bag of fresh berries.

In November 2025 an AP fact check published by Fortune found that the 2025 basket’s lower price came from fewer and different items, 15 items against 29, and quoted Texas A&M livestock economist David Anderson: “It’s not apples to apples.” Mouse Print also compared the 2024 and 2025 lists and noted a net drop of six items, including fresh vegetables and a large southern pecan pie. Walmart frames its 2026 claim as a like-for-like comparison (“12% less than those same items did last year”), which is a statement about price, not size.

No size cut on record

We have no documented size cut for Butterball turkey, Stove Top stuffing, Campbell’s cream of mushroom soup, Jet-Puffed marshmallows or JIFFY corn muffin mix, or for the Great Value items in the basket (fried onions, green beans, corn, brown gravy mix, rolls, pie crusts, pumpkin, evaporated milk and whipped topping). That does not mean they never shrank, only that no source we have checked documents both the old and the new size. If you have the old and new package, send both net weights: submit a sighting.

Context: what the research says

A study by Christian Rojas (UMass Amherst), Edward Jaenicke (Penn State) and Elina T. Page (USDA), published in the International Journal of Industrial Organization, found that the average size of packaged food in US grocery stores declined by 14.6% between 2012 and 2019 (UMass Amherst, 28 Jan 2026). Failing to account for the smaller packages would have understated food inflation by 3.7 percentage points over those seven years, nearly four. True shrinkflation of a continuing product was rare (fewer than 0.5% of products): most of the decline came from new, smaller products replacing older, larger ones, which the authors call “shrinkage”. Shrinkage was most pronounced in sugary foods such as candy and soft drinks, in states without unit-pricing laws, and in smaller packages. Only nine states have mandatory unit-pricing laws.

Our library measures something narrower: each case is an individual, documented downsize of the same product line, with both sizes from a source. It does not estimate how much the average pack shrank across a store.

How to check the holiday shop

1. Read the net weight (oz, g or ml), not “family size”. Those names stay when the pack shrinks.
2. Use the unit price on the shelf tag (price per ounce, per 100 g or per litre).
3. For a meal basket, compare each item’s size and count, and the number of servings the basket is meant to feed, not just the total price.
4. Check the gravy, stuffing and oil against last year’s receipt or what is left in the pantry.
5. Look it up: search a brand or type the barcode into the barcode lookup. Compare two packs with the shrinkflation calculator or the unit price calculator.

More seasonal guides: Halloween candy · Christmas chocolate. Topics: coffee · ice cream · jam & spreads · butter, cheese & yogurt · store brands. Countries: UK tracker · US tracker. All 1366 cases: known cases.

FAQ

Is Thanksgiving food getting smaller in 2026?

Some of it has. Our library has 25 documented size cuts to holiday-meal staples such as gravy, cranberry sauce, butter, cake mix and coffee, in the US, the UK and Canada, from 2008 to 2026. The median pack lost 14.7%, which is a 17.2% hidden price rise per unit if the shelf price stays the same. The newest: Eight O'Clock The Original whole bean coffee, large bag 40 oz → 38 oz (2026); Bisto Best gravy granules, large jar (UK, 2026) 390 g → 350 g (2026); Morrisons frozen button sprouts (UK) 1000 g → 800 g (2026).

Is Walmart's $35 holiday basket shrinkflation?

Walmart’s own lists do not show smaller packs. Where the same item appears in more than one year, Walmart lists the same pack size each time (for example Stove Top 6 oz boxes, the Campbell’s 10.5 oz can and 15 oz canned pumpkin). The price changes come mainly from what is in the basket and how many people it serves (8 in 2024, 10 since). Walmart says the 2026 basket costs 12% less than those same items did last year. Our library has documented size cuts for none of the 17 products in the 2026 basket.

Which Thanksgiving foods have shrunk?

Documented cuts on this page: Eight O'Clock The Original whole bean coffee, large bag 40 oz → 38 oz; Bisto Best gravy granules, large jar (UK, 2026) 390 g → 350 g; Morrisons frozen button sprouts (UK) 1000 g → 800 g; I Can't Believe It's Not Butter spread (UK) 500 g → 450 g; Tesco Finest roast turkey breast slices (UK) 120 g → 100 g; Great Value ground coffee can 11.3 oz → 9.6 oz; Kerrygold Salted and Unsalted butter block 250 g → 200 g; Turkey Hill ice cream 48 oz → 46 oz. All 25 link to their sources.

How much does shrinkflation add to food inflation?

A study by researchers at UMass Amherst, Penn State and the USDA, published in the International Journal of Industrial Organization, found the average size of packaged food in US grocery stores fell 14.6% between 2012 and 2019. Not accounting for smaller packages would have understated food inflation by 3.7 percentage points over those seven years. Most of the decline came from new, smaller products replacing older, larger ones; a continuing product shrinking was rare (fewer than 0.5% of products).

How do I check?

Read the net weight, not “family size”, and compare the unit price on the shelf tag. For a meal basket, compare each item’s size and count and the number of people it is meant to feed. Our shrinkflation calculator and unit price calculator do the math; search or the barcode lookup shows whether a product has a documented cut.

Where does this data come from?

The case figures come from allsupers.co.uk, which.co.uk, mouseprint.org, thegrocer.co.uk, nowtoronto.com, lendingtree.com, npr.org; each case page quotes and links its source. The basket lists are from Walmart’s press releases (2024, 2025, 2026) and CBS MoneyWatch; the context is from an AP fact check published by Fortune, Mouse Print and UMass Amherst.