Baking goods and spreads hidden inflation: +25.1% per unit vs +2.8% official inflation

By ShrinkRadar · Updated 2026-11-05 · Part of the ShrinkRadar Index, recomputed from the case library and official price data on every build

When a baking goods and spreads pack shrinks, its price per unit jumps. In 14 documented baking goods and spreads shrinks with shelf prices before and after and an official match (2020–2026), the median price per unit changed +25.1%. Official inflation for the same cases, matched to each one’s category, country and time, was +2.8%: official prices up 2.8%, the ShrinkRadar per-unit price up 25.1% over the same periods.

In one lineBy countryBy yearCasesOfficial seriesMethodCite

Baking goods and spreads in one line

Each line is computed from the tables below. Copy one with its source.

1. Baking goods and spreads: official prices were up 2.8% and the ShrinkRadar per-unit price up 25.1% over the same periods. Packs that shrank cost a median 25.1% more per unit than the pack they replaced, against 2.8% official inflation for the same category, country and time (14 priced cases with an official match, 2020–2026, mostly from Verbraucherzentrale Hamburg).

2. In 93% of those baking goods and spreads cases (13 of 14), the price per unit rose more than official inflation for the same category, country and time.

3. Across all 36 documented baking goods and spreads shrinks since 2018, the size cut alone raised the price per unit by a median 16.0%, before any change in the shelf price.

4. In Germany, baking goods and spreads packs that shrank were up 25.1% per unit, while official prices (Eurostat HICP) for the same cases were up 2.8% over the same periods (12 priced cases with an official match, 2020–2026, all from Verbraucherzentrale Hamburg).

By country

The same comparison for baking goods and spreads cases by the country they come from, each against its own statistics office. A country needs at least 5 priced cases with an official match; 8 of 9 countries have fewer, and the table says so instead of showing a figure.

By year

By the year the pack changed. A year needs at least 5 priced cases; thin years are marked. Comparisons spanning several years (2 baking goods and spreads cases) are left out of this series but kept in the headline and the case list. No single year has 5 priced baking goods and spreads cases yet, so there is no yearly figure.

The 36 baking goods and spreads cases

Which cases count. All 36 baking goods and spreads cases that changed in 2018 or later are listed and count in the size-cut figure. The per-unit headline uses the 14 that have shelf prices before and after and an official match (listed first). Left out of the per-unit figure: 22 size-only cases (the source recorded no shelf prices; we never fill one in). Not listed: 1 older baking goods and spreads case that changed before 2018, outside the range of the official data.

Official series used

Each baking goods and spreads case is matched to one official series for its country. A broad match means no series exists for exactly this category, so the nearest wider one is used.

Method and limits

Cite this page

ShrinkRadar, “ShrinkRadar Index: baking goods and spreads hidden inflation”, https://shrinkradar.com/shrinkflation-index/baking-and-spreads/, accessed 2026-11-05. Data: ShrinkRadar case library; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI-U; Eurostat HICP; Office for National Statistics CPI (Open Government Licence v3.0); Australian Bureau of Statistics CPI (CC BY 4.0); Statistics Canada CPI, Table 18-10-0004-01 (Statistics Canada Open Licence).

More on baking goods and spreads

• ShrinkRadar Index: all categories →Every category, country, month and year, with CSV downloads.
• Jam, spreads and baking shrinkflation →Every documented case in one place, brand by brand.
• All Baking & Spreads cases and tracked products →Size Facts, brands caught most often and products we check daily.
• shrinkflation-index.csv →Every Index figure, including this category, with case counts and a status column for thin rows.

Other categories in the Index

• Chocolate and candy +20.0% vs +8.7%
• Pasta, rice and meals +16.4% vs −0.7%
• Chips and snacks +19.5% vs +4.7%
• Dairy +11.1% vs +4.8%
• Breakfast cereal +25.0% vs +2.6%
• Laundry +14.5% vs +2.0%
• Coffee and tea +25.0% vs +11.6%
• Cookies and crackers +21.2% vs +1.3%
• Meat and fish +19.3% vs +3.0%
• Personal Care +27.9% vs +1.6%
• Soap, shampoo and body wash +21.4% vs +1.9%
• Dish soap and cleaners +11.1% vs +1.7%
• Juice and soft drinks +33.2% vs +5.0%
• Frozen Foods +16.9% vs +3.8%
• Pet Food +17.6% vs +1.9%
• Bread and bakery +16.0% vs +1.6%
• Toilet Paper +29.4% vs +28.8%
• Health and supplements +15.2% vs +3.2%
• Ice Cream +9.5% vs +6.6%
• Paper Towels +25.8% vs +28.8%

Closest to a figure (priced cases with an official match now, of 5 needed): Baby 4, needs 1 more; Household 4, needs 1 more; Oral Care 4, needs 1 more; Tissues 4, needs 1 more; Feminine Care 3, needs 2 more; Shaving & Razors 2, needs 3 more; Cat Litter & Pet Supplies 1, needs 4 more; Deodorant 1, needs 4 more; Bags, Foil & Wrap 0, needs 5 more.